Solar impact: Dutch spot prices drop below zero for 3 consecutive days

Last week was highly variable in terms of renewable generation. At the beginning of the week, there was virtually no wind in the Netherlands and Germany, and solar generation was limited. From Monday to Thursday, conventional power plants were marginal. Starting from Friday, the wind picked up significantly in Northwestern Europe and the solar generation increased substantially. As a result, Dutch spot prices were negative for several hours on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, dropping to around -30 €/MWh on all days. The Netherlands had a significant surplus of generation during these days, except on Sunday when wind generation decreased and there was relatively less solar generation. Nevertheless, the Netherlands imported a lot of power from Germany, subsequently exporting it to Belgium. Belgium, with an average baseload price of 65 €/MWh, was significantly more expensive than the Netherlands, where the baseload was 36 €/MWh.
Throughout the week, we saw both gas and CO2 prices increase. The average day-ahead gas price eventually settled at 26.6 €/MWh, compared to 24.5 €/MWh the week before. CO2 ended the week at 58.4 €/EUA – 2 euros higher than the previous week. For a brief period, the December 2024 contract traded above 60 €/EUA.
Despite the increase in commodity prices, the monthly Dutch power contracts for the second quarter of this year decreased compared to the previous week. April closed one euro lower at 54.1 €/MWh, while May became 2.5 euros cheaper, closing at 48.4 €/MWh on Friday. The spread between the Dutch and German power contracts for the summer period increased towards the end of the week after the Netherlands ended up being much cheaper in the spot market. Consequently, clean spark spreads deteriorated for this period: the spark spread for May decreased by 4 euros to -23 €/MWh.

On March 1st, EDF announced that reactor block 4 of the Blayais nuclear power plant in France would be extended by one month until mid-April. However, it was only at the beginning of last week when it was announced that corrosion problems were discovered during maintenance. This led to a brief increase in prices for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. This price increase demonstrates that the market is still very sensitive to negative news regarding the availability of nuclear power plants.
For 2025, the gas price barely moved. CO2 became 2 euros more expensive, reaching 60.5 €/EUA. The Dutch power contract increased by one euro and closed at 74.6 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for next year remained unchanged at -4.6 €/MWh.