United Kingdom faces cold snap as gas storage levels decline sharply

TTF prices saw the steepest drop in the second week of the year. Overall, gas contracts for the coming months fell by nearly 5 euros, closing at 45 €/MWh. CO2 prices slipped only slightly, with the December 2025 contract closing 1 euro lower at 74.8 €/EUA.
The decline in commodity prices drove down Dutch baseload power contracts. February prices fell sharply, with the contract dropping by nearly 15 euros to close the week at 97.6 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for February declined by around 5 euros, ending the week at -15 €/MWh. However, clean spark spreads for March and April edged slightly higher but remained deeply negative.
At the start of the week, there was considerable wind in Northwest Europe, which kept prices lower. By midweek, wind generation decreased, leading to a rise in prices. The average spot price for the week was 100 €/MWh. On both Monday and Tuesday, there were significant spreads between Dutch and German prices.
The United Kingdom had a turbulent week with sharply falling temperatures and limited renewable generation. On Wednesday, a warning was issued about a potential shortage of generation capacity as power demand increased and reserve capacity remained low. Importing power from the Netherlands and France was not an option, as these interconnectors were still out of service. The connection with Denmark was also restricted. Later that day, the warning was withdrawn. Lower temperatures drove higher gas consumption, leaving gas storage levels significantly lower than during the same period in 2022 and 2023.

For 2026, gas prices fell by 1 euro, closing at 38.6 €/MWh. CO2 prices also dropped by 1 euro, ending the week at 77.1 €/MWh. Dutch power prices declined by just 3 euros, closing at 87.8 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for 2026 remained relatively stable at -13 €/MWh.

Weekly changes