Surge in Wind Energy Production Results in Negative Prices

During the fourth week of 2024, North Western Europe experienced significant wind activity due to Storm Isha, leading to negative hourly electricity prices on January 24th, particularly in Germany, where the prices were negative for 5 consecutive hours. The initial high wind levels resulted in reduced reliance on gas and coal generation in the first half of the week. However, a notable decrease in wind generation on Thursday required increased activation of gas and coal power plants across most of the North Western European region. Wind generation subsequently improved moderately towards the weekend. In terms of market prices, the weekly average spot electricity price in the Netherlands was recorded at €65.9/MWh, approximately €16 lower than the preceding week. Correspondingly, the average weekly day-ahead gas price also declined by about €2, settling at €27.40/MWh. The TTF gas futures for February and March 2024 showed minimal change from the previous week, closing at €28.1/MWh and €28.2/MWh respectively. CO2 allowance prices remained stable, closing the week at €63.6/MWh. Dutch power contracts for February 2024 fell by around €5 to €68.9/MWh, while the contract for March concluded €2.4 lower at €64.4/MWh. The clean spark spread for February experienced a downturn, dropping by approximately €4.4 to -€7.3/MWh.

In a long-term context, the White House’s decision to pause new LNG export permits for a reassessment of their economic, environmental, and security impacts is not expected to affect the EU’s short-to-medium term energy supply. This is primarily because the pause affects future projects rather than existing ones. The EU, which has recently increased its imports of US LNG to compensate for the loss of Russian gas, remains in close communication with the US on this matter. The EU is committed to diversifying its energy sources, enhancing clean energy initiatives, and improving energy efficiency, thereby reinforcing its strong energy partnership with the US.
Furthermore, the TTF gas price for 2025 remained steady, closing at €32.4/MWh. CO2 allowance prices also saw no change, settling at €65.8/EUA. The Dutch power contract for 2025 declined by approximately €1.6, closing at €78.1/MWh. The clean spark spread for 2025 decreased to -€7.3/MWh, while the clean dark spread fell by €1, closing at -€11.9/MWh