Spot prices soar after drop in renewable generation

Last week the average Dutch spot price was 135.1 €/MWh making it almost 25 euros higher a week earlier. Prices shot up hard in the evening peaks as there was virtually no renewable generation in most countries in north-western Europe. On Wednesday, prices shot above €800/MWh in Germany. In the Netherlands, prices rose above €500/MWh. Spot prices in Germany already went up several times in previous weeks at times when there was little renewable generation. After the first quarter of this year, several power plants went back into reserves and German nuclear plants stopped producing permanently. Partly because of this, expensive power plants are marginal at distressed times. At the same time, France exported a lot of power. The Netherlands ended up being 11 euros cheaper than Germany.

Clean spark spreads for the winter months went up while gas prices rose. Gas closed some €4 higher at €42.6/MWh for the coming months. CO2 also became more expensive and closed at €68/EUA. The clean spark spread for December went up by about one and a half euros and was -5.2 €/MWh. The spark spread for January went up by 4 euros to 4.7 €/MWh. The high spot prices in both the Netherlands and Germany seem to have stoked fears about possible cold spells. For now, it has been warm, with temperatures above the seasonal average. One may wonder what will happen at the time when we experience several weeks of cold with little or no renewable generation.

Dutch power forward for 2025 became €6 more expensive and closed at €89.2/MWh. Gas got 2.5 euros more expensive and was 40.8 €/MWh. CO2 closed 4 euros higher at 70.1 €/EUA.

Weekly changes