Russian gas flow stops

Last week, the final gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine ceased. Briefly, the month-ahead gas contract traded above 50 €/MWh. Contracts for the coming months eventually settled at around 49.5 €/MWh, making gas about 1.5 euros more expensive in the first week of the year.
On Thursday, the European Commission announced that the security of gas supply would not be jeopardized by the loss of Russian gas deliveries. A few days earlier, the head of Germany’s energy regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, urged consumers to save gas due to ongoing risks. German gas storages are currently just under 80% full, compared to around 90% at this time last year. Higher gas consumption in November and December, partly due to colder weather compared to the previous year, contributed to the lower reserves. Meanwhile, the summer gas contract is trading 3 euros above the winter contract, making it less economically attractive to purchase gas and store it for the next winter. Typically, gas is cheaper in summer than in winter due to lower demand.
CO2 prices rose sharply last week, with the December 2025 contract settling almost 5 euros higher at 75.9 €/EUA. Coal prices also increased by around 1.5 euros, with February delivery closing at 106.7 €/Ton. Currently, gas-fired power plants are significantly more expensive than coal-fired plants. Despite the rise in CO2 prices, coal plants remain about 20 euros cheaper than gas plants.
Power prices for February and March rose slightly, closing at 112.2 and 94.9 €/MWh, respectively. Clean spark spreads for these months became more negative, at approximately -10 and -27 €/MWh. The average Dutch spot price was 90 €/MWh last week, while the German price was about 17 euros lower. At the beginning of the week, strong wind generation made Germany significantly cheaper than the Netherlands.

The gas price for 2026 increased by 1.5 euros, closing just below 40 €/MWh, the highest level since September 2023. CO2 prices rose by just under 5 euros, closing at 78.2 €/EUA. Dutch power became nearly 6 euros more expensive, closing at 90.5 €/MWh.

Weekly changes