RTE announces export restrictions in France

Last week, French grid operator RTE reported that from the end of July to mid-October, France expects to generate a lot of power while consuming relatively little, leading to significant exports to neighboring countries. This year, France has been exporting large volumes of power abroad, causing RTE to limit exports at times to avoid exceeding certain domestic threshold, which could jeopardize the French power grid. RTE has again indicated that export capacities with Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy may be limited from late July until September 8. Due to these export restrictions, French spot prices fell sharply earlier this year, causing spreads with countries like Germany and the Netherlands to widen significantly. The French baseload contract for August, which traded around 50 euros before the announcement, dropped to around 40 €/MWh. EDF also reported that nuclear power generation was about 12% higher in the first half of this year compared to 2023, mainly due to higher nuclear availability.
Prior to this year, EDF expected to generate approximately 315 to 345 TWh of nuclear power, and it now predicts that this will be closer to 345 TWh.
Last week, the average Dutch spot price was 72.5 €/MWh. The week was similar to the previous one, where the spot price was a euro lower. Wind generation was low and solar generation was occasionally variable. Conventional power plants were price-setting for the majority of the day except during the afternoons. Friday was an exception: prices remained high enough in the afternoon such that some conventional plants did not need to shut down. This was mainly due to limited solar generation in Germany.
Forward contracts didn’t move much. Gas prices for the coming months rose slightly, with August closing 30 cents higher at 32.5 €/MWh. CO2 prices increased by one and a half euros, reaching 67.9 €/EUA. Dutch power for August became nearly 6 euros more expensive, closing at 73.4 €/MWh.

The European Commission has launched an investigation to determine the extent to which the Belgian government can provide financial support to keep the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear reactors open longer. The idea is to extend the lifespan of these plants by 10 years, with the Belgian government providing state aid to French utility Engie, which owns a significant share. Engie previously reported that the extension would cost between 1.6 to 2 billion euros. The European Commission is questioning the compatibility of this aid with European state aid regulations.
For 2025, there was little change. TTF gas prices rose by half a euro to 37.3 €/MWh, and CO2 prices increased by one and a half euros to 70.4 €/EUA. The Dutch clean spark spread remained nearly the same at around -10 €/MWh. The Dutch power contract increased by 2 euros and settled at 86,7 €/MWh.

Weekly changes