QatarEnergy Expanding LNG Output Despite Price Drops

Last week, the wind generation on the mainland experienced a surge, consistently exceeding the average levels for this time of year. Especially in the latter half of the week, this increase in wind power generation led to a reduction in the need for gas and coal power. The abundance of wind energy even resulted in electricity prices nearing zero for five consecutive hours on Friday. The average baseload electricity price in the Netherlands over the last week was at €57.5 per MWh, marking a significant decline of about €10 from the week prior. Gas prices also followed a downward trajectory last week, with March and April 2024 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas prices decreasing by €1.9, to stand at €22.9/MWh and €23.1/MWh, respectively. In tandem, the cost of European Union Allowances (EUA) saw a notable fall, dropping €5 to close at €52.2/EUA. Partially due to lower fuel prices, the power prices also fell. Specifically, the March 2024 baseload electricity price in the Netherlands decreased by €1.7 to €55.8/MWh, and the April 2024 contract went down by €4.2, concluding at €48.3/MWh.

Qatar has announced plans to increase its natural gas production, aiming to add 16 million metric tons per year to its liquefied natural gas (LNG) output, raising its total capacity to 142 million tons annually by 2030. This decision comes despite a recent significant drop in global LNG prices, driven by a warmer-than-usual winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which led to decreased demand. The move is a strategic long-term investment in anticipation of the growing demand for cleaner fuels in Europe and Asia. QatarEnergy chief, Saad al-Kaabi, highlighted the potential growth in Asian markets and the ongoing need for gas in Europe, underscoring the belief in a sustained future for gas for at least the next 50 years. The expansion is part of Qatar’s response to recent market dynamics, including the surge in gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a temporary halt in new U.S. LNG export terminal approvals for environmental reviews. The project, costing billions of dollars, involves the construction of additional LNG trains and is seen as enhancing Qatar’s reputation as a reliable and low-cost LNG supplier.
As we look forward to 2025, changes in energy market prices have been observed. The TTF gas price decreased by €1.2 to €27.4/MWh. Similarly, carbon emission prices fell by approximately €5.1, ending at €54.2/EUA. Alongside these, the Dutch electricity price for the period saw a reduction of nearly €3.7, concluding the week at €66.6/MWh. The Clean Spark Spread (CSS) for the following year experienced a minor change, slightly increasing by €0.5 to a negative €5/MWh.