Prices rise following escalation in the Middle East

Last week, wind speeds increased significantly in Northwest Europe mid-week, particularly in the Netherlands and Germany, resulting in substantial wind generation. Monday was an exception, with prices surging to 200 €/MWh in the morning, and reaching 283 €/MWh during the evening peak. In the following days, there were several instances of consecutive prices around 0 €/MWh. Offshore wind farms faced curtailment on a day-ahead basis. The average spot price for the week was 68 €/MWh.
At the same time, gas prices rose throughout the week. Prolonged maintenance periods in Norway, as well as the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon, were likely the primary causes. The October gas price closed nearly 4 euros higher at 38.1 €/MWh. Prices of other commodities also increased. Coal became 5 euros more expensive, with October settling at 105.8 €/Ton. CO2 prices rose by 3 euros, closing at 66.3 €/EUA.
Dutch power contracts naturally became more expensive as well. October closed almost 8 euros higher at 83.1 €/MWh, while November and December both closed 4 euros higher at 92.6 €/MWh. Clean spark spreads for the same periods worsened, with November and December falling by more than 2 euros to -4.8 and -5.7 €/MWh, respectively.

2025 saw similar price movements. Gas became 2 euros more expensive, closing at 38 €/MWh. The Dutch power price rose by 4 euros to 85.6 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for next year fell by 1 euro, reaching -11.4 €/MWh.

Weekly changes