Prices surge amid tensions in Middle East

Gas prices for the coming months rose due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Israel eliminated two leaders of Iran-backed organizations Hamas and Hezbollah in a short period, prompting Iran to vow revenge. The fear of escalation pushed gas prices up by a few euros. The September gas contract eventually closed 3 euros higher at 36.6 €/MWh, while October settled at 37.6 €/MWh.
CO2 prices also increased: the December 2024 contract rose by nearly 3 euros, closing at 70.6 €/EUA. Coal prices went up by just over 6 euros, settling at 111.7 €/Ton.
As commodity prices rose during the week, the variable costs of gas and coal power plants also increased. Consequently, the average Dutch spot price was almost 5 euros higher than the previous week, at 76.9 €/MWh. Due to the lack of wind, gas and coal power plants were once again the marginal plants almost every hour, except during the afternoon. This was the third consecutive week with little to no wind generation in Northwest Europe. Last week, tropical storm Debby was closely monitored. The trajectory of the storm, which has now developed into a hurricane, influenced various weather scenarios in Europe, potentially bringing wind back to Northwest Europe.

The CAL25 contract for Dutch power rose by 5 euros, closing at 92.1 €/MWh. This increase was mainly driven by higher gas and CO2 prices. Prices for 2025 also increased: gas rose by 2 euros to 39.6 €/MWh, and CO2 closed nearly 3 euros higher at 73 €/EUA. The clean spark spread was around -10 €/MWh. The clean dark spread improved slightly and was approximately -14 €/MWh.

Weekly changes