Power contracts fall sharply as commodity prices drop

Last week we discussed how gas prices continue to fall despite a drop in temperatures around the continent. In this week’s market report, we will be discussing the power contracts that are experiencing a significant decline due to the drop in commodity prices.

Last week was dominated by lower temperatures in the CWE region. French power demand rose significantly throughout the week and remained high in the weekends. In addition, wind generation levels in both Germany and Netherlands were rather low throughout the week, requiring more conventional power plants to meet power demand. Despite less wind generation, solar production increased during the weekdays in both countries. The average weekly dutch power price was 10 euros higher than the previous week, settling at 134 €/MWh.

Despite the increased demand for gas-fired power plants last week, day-ahead gas prices fell at the end of the week. The average weekly day-ahead gas price was 48.7 €/MWh, down by 2 euros week-to-week. Gas prices for the upcoming months fell rapidly. Both April and May fell by almost 6 euros and closed at 45 and 45.1 €/MWh, respectively.

Coal prices also fell throughout the week. April and May fell by almost 29 euros and cleared at 118.8 and 119.1 €/Ton. CO2 trended downwards and cleared 5 euros lower at 92.2 €/MWh. Furthermore, as gas and coal prices fell, the gap in production costs between gas and coal-fired power plants also shrunk.

As commodity prices dropped, Dutch power prices for the coming months also fell sharply. The April contract cleared 15 euros lower at 111 €/MWh. The May contract dropped by 17 euros and settled at 114,3 €/MWh.

Commodity prices for next year also fell drastically. For 2024, CO2 dropped by 5 euros, settling at 97.1 €/EUA. Gas continued to drop and cleared 5,5 euros lower at 51.2 €/MWh. Coal fell by almost 23,5 euros and closed at 125,5 €/Ton.

The Dutch power CAL-24 contract dropped by 16,5 euros and settled at 127 €/MWh. The spark spread for next year deteriorated as it dropped by 4 euros and settled at a negative price of -5 €/MWh. The dark spread dropped by 4 euros and also settled at a negative price of -0,5 €/MWh.

Weekly changes