Navigating the Decrease: Energy Prices Persist in their Downtrend

Throughout most days, solar and wind generation remained robust, contributing to the overall energy supply. During the weekend, negative spot prices were once again observed for multiple hours, indicating an excess of power supply. The average weekly Dutch spot price cleared at 71.6 €/MWh, representing a significant decrease of €22 compared to the previous week.
Gas prices continued their relentless descent, reaffirmed by a noteworthy plunge in the June and July 2023 TTF contracts. These contracts decreased by €2.6, clearing at 30.2 €/MWh and 30.6 €/MWh, respectively. In contrast, there was a slight increase in December 2023 carbon prices, with EUA prices rising by €1.4 to reach 89.9 €/EUA.
Partly driven by the decrease in gas prices, Dutch power contracts for the upcoming months also witnessed a decline. The June Dutch baseload contract dropped by €3.2 to 86 €/MWh, while the July contract experienced a slightly larger decline, decreasing by €3.5 to 89 €/MWh.

In the long term, the TTF 2024 contract experienced a significant reduction of €3.9, closing at 50.3 €/MWh. Conversely, the 2024 carbon prices saw an increase of €1.5, reaching 94.2 €/MWh. Additionally, the Dutch CAL-24 power contract decreased by €8.3 and concluded at 123.2 €/MWh. The Clean Spark Spread (CSS) for 2024 decreased by €1.4 to -6.4 €/MWh, while the Clean Dark Spread (CDS) experienced a larger decrease, dropping by €7.4 to 2.5 €/MWh.

In a recent development, the European Union (EU) successfully initiated its inaugural joint-purchasing tender, resulting in an influx of sales offers from 25 companies. The tender witnessed a total demand aggregation of 11.6bcm of gas during the offer-matching phase held from 10th to 15th May 2023. Out of the 13.4bcm of gas initially offered, only 10.9bcm found suitable matches with bids, as announced by European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic. Notably, of the matched volume, 8.7bcm was allocated for gas supplied through pipelines, while 2.2bcm was designated for liquefied natural gas (LNG) sources, highlighting the diversity in supply sources.

However, despite the successful matching of bids and offers, it is essential to note that these agreements do not guarantee the securement of supplies. Negotiations between buyers and sellers occur bilaterally, outside of the AggregateEU platform, underscoring the importance of post-tender discussions and finalizing contractual terms. The matching process, while promising, does not necessarily ensure the definitive purchase of gas.

Weekly changes