Spot prices rise amid a cold week

The beginning of last week was relatively cold. In France, the average temperature on Monday and Tuesday was about 5 degrees below the climate average, leading to an increase in power demand. Renewable generation was moderate, so many conventional power plants were in operation. The average Dutch spot price was 74.1 €/MWh. On average, the day-ahead gas price fell by almost 2 euros, reaching 30.1 €/MWh. On Friday, there was much more renewable generation than initially expected, especially solar generation, leading to a significant surplus of power in the afternoon. As a result, downwards emergency power was activated for one hour. On Sunday, wind speeds increased significantly, boosting wind generation, resulting in negative day-ahead prices from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. Gas prices for the coming months dropped by 2 euros. May and June both closed at 28.9 €/MWh. CO2 decreased by an average of 2 euros, closing at 66.9 €/EUA. The Dutch electricity prices for May and June fell by 2 to 3 euros, closing at 57.3 and 60.9 €/MWh, respectively. The clean spark spreads for these months improved, with the clean spark spread for May at about -22 €/MWh.

The German Bundesnetzagentur, the energy regulatory authority, announced last week that around 4.4 GW of flexible capacity will be decommissioned between now and by the end of 2026. About 1.6 GW of new capacity will be installed, with approximately half expected to consist of gas-fired capacity. At the end of March, many power plants that were temporarily allowed to operate to ensure sufficient winter capacity were removed from the German market.
For 2025, the gas price fell more moderately: TTF dropped by 1 euro, closing at 33.5 €/MWh. CO2 for next year became 2 euros cheaper, closing at 69.6 €/EUA. The Dutch power price dropped by almost 3 euros to 81.6 €/MWh. The clean spark spread remained largely unchanged at -7.3 €/MWh.