Not low water levels, but high water levels are limiting power production abroad.

Last week, once again, we experienced above-average wind and relatively less solar generation. Towards the end of the workweek, renewable generation slightly decreased, only to rise significantly again by the end of Sunday. The average spot price was 71.6 €/MWh compared to 79.1 €/MWh the previous week.
A few weeks ago, concerns arose that low river levels, including the Rhine at Kaub, could impact the power markets like they did in 2022. A year ago around this time, low river levels due to drought affected the availability of several major coal-fired power plants in southern Germany. Mid-July saw the river level at Kaub drop to about 1 meter, but after weeks of heavy precipitation, it has risen above 2 meters. In Austria, the production of hydropower plants was even limited over the weekend after a river overflowed its banks. Additionally, high water levels supposedly reduced the output of run-of-river hydroelectric plants.
Gas remained relatively stable. However, the September contract increased by 2 euros, closing at 28.9 €/MWh. The October contract increased by almost 1.5 euros, ending at 33.3 €/MWh. Coal prices hardly moved: the September contract became only 1 euro more expensive, closing at 99 €/Ton.
CO2 took a significant step back, dropping by 5 euros to 83.7 €/EUA.
Dutch power contracts for September and October became about 2.5 euros more expensive, closing at 84.3 and 92.7 €/MWh, respectively. The clean spark spread for those months improved by slightly less than a euro but remained negative: for September, it was -0.5 €/MWh, and for October, it was -0.7 €/MWh.

The German Ministry of Economic Affairs unveiled its plans last week regarding the construction of “hydrogen-ready” gas power plants. This would involve about 24 GW of capacity, with around 15 GW consisting of gas power plants that can operate on gas for a defined period but must transition to hydrogen no later than 2035. A tender for over 10 GW is scheduled between 2024 and 2026, of which 6 GW will be reserved for newly built plants.
For next year, gas became slightly cheaper. The gas contract for 2024 decreased by 0.80 euros and closed the week at 49.1 €/MWh. The CO2 contract for 2024, like the contract for the upcoming December, became around 5 euros cheaper, dropping to 87.9 €/EUA.
The Dutch power contract became nearly 6 euros cheaper, closing at 121.4 €/MWh. As a result, the clean spark spread for 2024 decreased by 2 euros to -4 €/MWh. The clean dark spread worsened by 1.2 euros and was 4 euros €/MWh.

Weekly changes