France cautiously optimistic for the coming winter

Last week we witnessed another significant influx of wind production in Northwestern Europe. Both in the Netherlands and Germany, there was still an above-average amount of wind. However, wind generation decreased during the week, with a notable drop during the weekend. As a result, power prices were considerably higher than the previous week. The average Dutch spot price last week was 95.5 €/MWh compared to 66.8 €/MWh the week before. The day-ahead gas price averaged 42.3 €/MWh, a decrease of about 50 euro cents from the previous week.
The gas price for December dropped by about one and a half euros, closing the week at 46.6 €/MWh. CO2 became one euro more expensive, ending the week at 78.7 €/EUA. Dutch power for December increased by half a euro, reaching 101.5 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for December increased by about 3 euros but remained highly negative at around -16 €/MWh. Spark spreads in Germany also increased for the upcoming month.
Last week, the French transmission system operator RTE announced that it does not anticipate France facing a shortage of generation capacity this coming winter. The availability of nuclear power plants has significantly improved in recent weeks, and it is still expected that power demand will be nearly 10% lower than pre-2022 levels. Nevertheless, RTE warns that risks still exist. The availability of nuclear power plants will still be lower than in previous years, and a combination of prolonged cold weather and a decline in wind generation could potentially pose challenges for France.

Gas prices for next year decreased by almost 2 euros to 47.9 €/MWh. CO2 for 2024 increased by one euro, closing at 82.5 €/EUA. The Dutch power price dropped by 3 euros to 113.9 €/MWh.
The clean spark spread for next year improved slightly and became half a euro more expensive. However, the spark spread remains negative at -7 €/MWh.

Weekly changes