Significant price spikes in the evenings

The average Dutch spot price was 94.8 €/MWh. Across Europe, high temperatures were the norm, with many countries experiencing temperatures well above seasonal averages. Wind generation was low at the start of the week, but wind speeds picked up significantly on Thursday and Friday, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands.
From Monday to Wednesday, large spark spreads were observed in both countries. On Tuesday, prices in Germany soared above 650 €/MWh, while in the Netherlands, prices exceeded 300 €/MWh for two hours. These price spikes were mainly due to a sudden increase in power demand, which had to be met by flexible assets. Many power plants were already running on Monday, lowering their start-up costs, but additional plants had to be activated on Tuesday. These plants had likely been offline for some time, leading to rapid price increases. Supply and demand matched at a point where the merit order became extremely steep. The previous weeks had already hinted at this, as prices during the evening peak in both the Netherlands and Germany had risen sharply multiple times. September is a month where demand naturally rises, wind speeds increase but are not exceptionally high, and available generation capacity is lower due to maintenance in preparation for winter and the long-term absence of heat-supplying plants.
Despite the relatively high spark spreads at the beginning of the week, gas prices fell last week. Contracts for the coming months dropped by about 3 euros, with October closing at 36.5 €/MWh. CO2 prices also fell by 4 euros, ending the week at 66.5 €/EUA.
Meanwhile, France’s EDF announced that it expects total nuclear power generation in France for 2024 to be around 340 to 360 TWh, up from the previous estimate of 315 to 345 TWh. This increase in output is due to better management of inspections and maintenance, as well as the absence of heatwaves in the summer. During heatwaves, the availability of nuclear power can be limited when river temperatures rise, preventing the discharge of cooling water back into the rivers.

Contracts for 2025 saw price declines. The Dutch baseload power contract dropped by nearly 6 euros to 87.3 €/MWh. Gas fell by 2.5 euros, closing at 38.5 €/MWh. CO2 decreased by 4 euros, settling at 68.7 €/EUA.

Weekly changes