ENTSO-E: favorable conditions for the upcoming winter

The past week featured variable weather conditions, remaining relatively mild. Towards the end of the workweek, temperatures approached climate averages, and wind in the Netherlands significantly diminished on Thursday and Friday. However, over the weekend, wind speeds picked up substantially in Northwestern Europe. Overall, the week bore resemblance to the previous one, with the average Dutch spot price at 90.5 €/MWh, slightly lower than the previous week. Gas prices increased slightly throughout the week, averaging almost one and a half euros higher at 43.9 €/MWh.
Apart from mild temperatures, the current weather conditions bring increased rainfall, elevating water levels in rivers such as the Rhine. Reuters reported last week that certain sections of the Rhine were closed for navigation due to high water levels. Some ships lack sufficient clearance to pass under bridges, preventing them from reaching Switzerland. Last year, low water levels during the summer posed a bottleneck, limiting the transport of coal.
Looking ahead to the final month of the year, the gas price saw a slight decrease, with TTF dropping almost one and a half euros to 45.1 €/MWh. CO2 prices decreased by one euro, settling at 76.5 €/EUA. The Dutch power contract became 5 euros cheaper, priced at 96.8 €/MWh. For the coming months, clean spark spreads also decreased. The spark spread for December remains highly negative at approximately -17 €/MWh. Spark spreads for January and February dropped by 2.5 and 0.50 euros, ending at -3.3 and 2.7 €/MWh, respectively.
Last week, ENTSO-E announced that it does not anticipate a shortage of generation capacity in Europe for the upcoming winter. According to the expectations of national grid operators, there should be sufficient generation capacity to meet power demand. France is expected to have an ample supply of nuclear power, while Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom have enough gas-fired power plants. Water reservoirs are better filled compared to last year. However, regional risks persist, particularly in France, Belgium, and the United Kingdom if cold weather occurs.

Looking ahead to the next year, the gas price experienced a reduction of almost one and a half euros, closing at 46.6 €/MWh. CO2 prices decreased by 2 euros, reaching 80.2 €/EUA. The Dutch power contract decreased by 2 euros, settling at 112 €/MWh.
The clean spark spread increased by approximately one and a half euros, reaching -5.6 €/MWh. On the other hand, the dark spread improved by 2 euros, standing at 4.8 €/MWh.

Weekly changes