Costly mistake leads to very negative prices in Finland

Last week, we observed temperatures dropping below the seasonal average in Northwestern Europe towards the end of the week. Wind decreased at the beginning of the week, but on Thursday and Friday, wind generation increased significantly. The average spot price ended at 104 €/MWh, about 13 euros higher compared to the previous week. The average gas price was ultimately 45.6 €/MWh, nearly 2 euros higher than the week before.
From Monday to Sunday, there was a significant shift in the weather forecasts for the next 2 to 3 weeks. The expectation for above-average temperatures changed to much colder conditions in Europe on Sunday evening. This led to a substantial increase in power prices. The Dutch power contract for December became around 8 euros more expensive, ultimately reaching 104.8 €/MWh. The gas price for December increased by almost 2 euros, closing at 46.7 €/MWh. CO2 remained more or less unchanged at 76.6 €/EUA.
In Finland, the day-ahead auction for Friday closed at -203 €/MWh after a market participant made an error in the bidding process. The party published a REMIT message on Nord Pool stating that it had offered almost 6 GW on average for each hour, resulting in the last 10 hours of the day reaching -500 €/MWh. Nord Pool was then asked to initiate a second auction, but after discussions with European exchanges, it was found that this could not be done. In various European countries, a second auction would typically be automatically held, but this is not the case for the Nordic countries. The Finnish transmission system operator, Fingrid, encouraged parties to trade as much as possible on the intraday market and asked consumers to moderate their power consumption despite the negative prices.

For next year, the gas price increased by almost a euro. TTF for 2024 ultimately closed at 47.3 €/MWh. CO2 showed minimal movement and remained stable at 80.2 €/EUA. The power price decreased by 50 eurocents to 111.5 €/MWh. The clean spark spread worsened by 2 euros and was -7.5 €/MWh. The dark spread deteriorated by almost 3 euros but remained positive at 3 €/MWh.
For 2024, the European Commission has mandated that underground gas storage facilities must be filled to 90% capacity by November 1 for all member states. Intermediate targets are also specified for February, May, July, and September. The storage target for February is intended for a potential cold snap. Compared to 2023, Dutch gas storages are required to be less full intermittently. Countries like Austria and France must fill their gas storages more in the coming year. Countries are allowed to miss their targets by no more than 5%.

Weekly changes