Coal plants become cheaper after CO2 price drop

At the beginning of last week, the Netherlands experienced strong winds, which drove spot prices down. However, by midweek, the winds died down, resulting in relatively low renewable generation. The average spot price was 74 €/MWh.

Gas prices continued to rise last week. TTF for November closed 2 euros higher at 41 €/MWh, while December and January closed at 41.5 and 41.7 €/MWh, respectively. The increase in TTF prices was primarily driven by news that Israel intended to attack oil refineries in Iran.

Coal prices also increased, with the price for November delivery rising by 6 euros to 112.4 €/Ton. In contrast, CO2 prices fell by 4 euros to 62 €/EUA. As a result, clean spark spreads in the forward market decreased. The Dutch clean spark spread for November and December closed 5 and 4 euros lower at -10 and -9.6 €/MWh, respectively. Dark spreads increased slightly. The drop in CO2 prices has caused production costs for gas and coal plants to diverge, with coal plants currently being slightly cheaper than most gas plants. Additionally, lower solar generation in the afternoon is keeping prices higher, making it easier for large Dutch coal plants to operate at maximum capacity in the morning, minimize output in the afternoon, and ramp up again during the evening peak. In the northern part of the country, TenneT once again imposed production restrictions on various power plants.

The gas price for 2025 increased by 2 euros, reaching 40 €/MWh. CO2 prices dropped sharply, closing over 4 euros lower at 64 €/EUA. Dutch power prices increased by half a euro, closing at 86.2 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for next year fell by 2 euros to -13 €/MWh.

Weekly changes