Sustained Wind Generation Anchors Energy Prices

Last week, we discussed Germany activating another lignite reserve. In this week’s market report, we further discuss the ongoing wind generation anchoring energy prices.

Last week, with the exception of Monday and Thursday, the mainland experienced a robust renewable energy output. Wind generation notably surged over the weekend, leading to negative hourly spot prices for 16 of the 48-hour period in the Netherlands. This consistent wind generation caused the Dutch weekly average spot prices to settle at 84 €/MWh, marking an increase of 1.4 €/MWh compared to the prior week when wind output also surpassed the seasonal average by a substantial amount.

Despite the heightened wind activity over the weekend, there were periods, particularly on Monday and Thursday, when wind generation dipped substantially. During these intervals, a significant reliance on gas generation was needed to meet the energy demand across most countries in the Central Western European region.

In the forthcoming months, there has been a noteworthy surge in gas prices. The TTF contract for November witnessed an increment of €15.8, culminating the week at 54 €/MWh. Meanwhile, the December TTF prices rose by €13.4, settling at 56.3 €/MWh.

Furthermore, the carbon prices for December 2023 experienced an upswing of €5.5, wrapping up the week at 86 €/MWh. There was also an upward trajectory in Dutch power forwards. The baseload power for November in the Netherlands escalated by €30.2, finishing the week at 128.9 €/MWh. In contrast, the December baseload surged by €23.4, ending at 132.4 €/MWh.

Unions at Chevron’s Australian LNG facilities plan to resume strikes, intensifying a dispute which began after a provisional deal collapsed earlier this month. The Gorgon and Wheatstone sites, contributing to 6% of global LNG supply, had witnessed weeks of strikes in September. Although the Fair Work Commission mediated talks and requested a halt to strikes, the Offshore Alliance union coalition indicated strikes would continue unless Chevron revised its stance.

For the 2024 TTF gas contracts, there was a rise of €11.3, with the market closing at 56.5 €/MWh. The front-year carbon prices appreciated by €5.6, settling at 90.1 €/EUA. The Dutch CAL-24 power contract observed an augmentation of nearly €22, culminating at 133.9 €/MWh. However, the clean spark spread for the upcoming year depreciated by 1.9 euros, finishing the week at -6.4 €/MWh.

Weekly changes